Further evidence of our strengthening El Nino this year recently took shape in the form of Typhoon Lupit in the Northwest Pacific and Hurricane Neki in the Central North Pacific.
While it is not 'normal' to see such strong tropical systems in the Central Pacific, according to Sean Collins: "It is typical El Nino stuff when the normal ENE tradewinds back off and things get real calm and stable in the upper atmosphere that we can see these things develop." Such was the case with the formation of Neki.
Neki initially flared up roughly 650 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island; then took a NW-WNW track around the Islands where it strengthened to a category three hurricane over October 21st and 22nd. Since then, Neki has been moving north and weakening due to it entering cooler waters and experiencing greater wind shear. Neki has now dissipated, however, this storm has been undergoing 'extratropical transition' since Tuesday as it merges with a frontal low northwest of Hawaii.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Lupit was recently in the Northwest Pacific, while intensifying into a category four typhoon over October 17th-19th. Lupit first approached the Philippines on a WNW track then made a sharp northeast turn and has been weakening while moving along the east coast of Japan over the past few days (while sending solid swell). This storm is also now going 'extratropical' as it merges with a frontal low off the coast of the Kuril Islands/Kamchatka Peninsula and is forecast to continue over the next couple of days as it heads towards the Bering Sea.
What does it all mean for Hawaii? Well, it looks like there is good potential for solid, back-to-back NW swells later this week and over the Halloween weekend. Be sure to check the forecast so you don't miss out on any of the action.
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